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Hi there,
I request your assistance in creating a succinct and forward-looking strategic assessment regarding the expected increase and expansion of militancy in the Sahel and Lake Chad basin regions. Please refrain from using academic language and instead adopt a BLUF (bottom line up front) approach, utilizing brief and probabilistic language where relevant. The report should have a forward-looking outlook and rely on the scenario analysis that I have created. This will be the basis of the report.
The report itself should include (but not necessarily limited to):
– Verification of critical assumptions (key assumptions check)
– A topline summary of why scenario 4 (aka escalation and expansion) is the most likely outcome within the next 6-12 months (max 75 words).
– An analysis of militants’ capabilities, the Wagner group, international missions/ alliances and why the military in affected countries may have limited capabilities to prevent militancy.
So basically, the analysis should revolve around the two axes identified (militants’ capacity increases/decreases vs government capacity increases/decreases).
Within this framework, the paper should address all the sub-issues (Demographic dynamics and socioeconomic factors, reduced Western interference, Cooperation w/ regional powers and ability to counter insurgency etc) and refer to data produced by the Global Terrorism Index 2023 (pp.60-70) and Africa Center. Please feel free to copy paste (screenshort data/charts from their reports to illustrate your arguments).
– Identify tripwires/escalatory triggers that we would need to monitor to determine if scenario 4 (escalation and expansion) is imminent/likely and if further contigency planning is required to mitigate the risks.
Overall, the report should be tactical, neutral and impartial, and must convey in a clear way where militants are likely to expand next based on their strategic objectives, capabilities, funding, and other factors. I have started to compile research elements in an Excel sheet, which you may use as a reference. Given the complexity of the issue, please concentrate on the most relevant actors/elements while keeping the document brief.
If you feel there is a more compelling and efficient way to forecast developments, please let me know.
Please use these sources along with the notes uploaded.
Fatalities from Militant Islamist Violence in Africa Surge by Nearly 50 Percent
https://reliefweb.int/report/world/global-terrorism-index-2023https://reliefweb.int/report/world/global-terrorism-index-2023 (pp.60-70 only)
Thank you in advance!
Too Tired? Too Anxious? Need More Time? We’ve got your back.